Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-16 26.683775 29.551899 32.820658 36.874429 41.844268 47.847744 55.829113
2025-02-23 22.391090 25.963258 30.384288 36.435526 44.820800 56.603094 75.702270
2025-03-02 19.739542 23.674975 28.860332 36.550361 48.425671 67.796456 107.275660
2025-03-09 17.709165 21.772871 27.385575 36.256708 51.283088 79.514007 154.027291
2025-03-16 16.118237 20.193843 26.032392 35.748336 53.568035 91.847063 228.136818
2025-03-23 14.887628 18.940478 24.924532 35.332009 55.843058 106.175612 367.949393
2025-03-30 13.914762 17.934980 24.027263 35.046249 58.267688 123.578073 706.298500
2025-04-06 12.969914 16.868957 22.886350 34.080566 58.885480 136.876364 1519.241652
2025-04-13 12.654576 16.715970 23.185512 35.841319 66.658134 189.424374 NaN
2025-04-20 12.029893 16.021648 22.488932 35.495415 68.947816 225.046528 NaN
2025-04-27 11.572368 15.551000 22.118546 35.744761 73.116806 288.642022 NaN
2025-05-04 11.182727 15.156033 21.833469 36.118119 77.970937 390.238759 NaN
2025-05-11 10.787099 14.727467 21.453417 36.237260 82.286791 541.816070 NaN
2025-05-18 10.337063 14.179541 20.804576 35.627720 83.761501 694.163098 NaN
2025-05-25 10.002608 13.803535 20.442138 35.644419 87.865943 1084.447797 NaN
2025-06-01 9.657687 13.388716 19.970027 35.315456 90.472993 1738.740415 NaN
2025-06-08 9.321301 12.969736 19.456660 34.805210 92.105549 3008.261500 NaN
2025-06-15 9.021611 12.598064 19.007135 34.395145 94.123853 7567.673941 NaN
2025-06-22 8.757458 12.274369 18.627794 34.115911 96.787468 359477.512336 NaN
2025-06-29 8.447543 11.857069 18.036008 33.189491 95.544475 NaN NaN
2025-07-06 8.406440 11.906574 18.377633 34.870783 110.833846 NaN NaN
2025-07-13 8.183820 11.624033 18.024346 34.539562 113.556067 NaN NaN
2025-07-20 8.023907 11.445863 17.873416 34.777292 120.724968 NaN NaN